How PairBets works

Data and model

Data comes from football-data.org. We use up to 10 home results for the home team and away results for the visitors from the current season of the same competition, with at least 3 fixtures each. Free data may be delayed. The Poisson model is simple and uncalibrated and excludes injuries, squads and odds.

Publication and results

Insights are generated 13–72 hours before kick-off. Thresholds are 55% for 1/X/2 and 60% for goal markets; estimates of 95% or above are omitted. The eligible selection with the highest probability is published. Original text and publication time are retained. Rescheduled fixtures have their insights withdrawn.

Limitations

A high probability does not guarantee an outcome. Selection thresholds have not been optimised by backtesting. Without odds we do not measure profit. The Romanian SuperLiga is not included in available competitions.