Retrospective model backtest
Inspect retrospective Poisson model results and compare probability scores with a simple competition baseline.
Predictions are reconstructed using only results from before each match. The comparison uses Brier scores and log loss, with the same fixtures for the model and baseline. Retrospective results are separate from the advance-publication archive.
Provider data may be revised; this test does not demonstrate profit.
18+ · Be responsible. Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.