INSIGHT PUBLISHED IN ADVANCE
Sparta — Willem II
Kick-off: · Romania time
Over 2.5 goals76.2%
First published: · 18.0h before kick-off
The statistical selection for Sparta — Willem II is “Over 2.5 goals”. It has the highest model probability among eligible markets; this is not an assessment of value against bookmaker odds.
In 4 home matches in this competition, Sparta averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded. In 4 away matches, Willem II averaged 1.00 scored and 3.25 conceded.
These averages imply 4.00 expected goals in total. The Poisson distribution gives a 76.2% estimated probability of at least three goals.
Small sample: fewer than 10 matches for at least one team. Simple, uncalibrated statistical model. Injuries, squads, odds and breaking news are not included. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
football-data.org · Data available at publication: 17 Oct 2026, 04:02
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