INSIGHT PUBLISHED IN ADVANCE
Groningen — Ajax
Kick-off: · Romania time
Over 2.5 goals74.3%
First published: · 37.7h before kick-off
The statistical selection for Groningen — Ajax is “Over 2.5 goals”. It has the highest model probability among eligible markets; this is not an assessment of value against bookmaker odds.
In 4 home matches in this competition, Groningen averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. In 3 away matches, Ajax averaged 3.67 scored and 0.33 conceded.
These averages imply 3.88 expected goals in total. The Poisson distribution gives a 74.3% estimated probability of at least three goals.
Small sample: fewer than 10 matches for at least one team. Simple, uncalibrated statistical model. Injuries, squads, odds and breaking news are not included. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
football-data.org · Data available at publication: 17 Oct 2026, 04:02
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